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housing data 2012-Reading the tea leaves

Housing Supply is Down  Demand will start to Increase

I found a great article today from Reuters titled “Reading the Tea Leaves of Housing data.” I had to laugh to myself because I could not of written a better synopsis of the real estate market. Right now it seems one month the numbers are up and the next month things look like they are beginning to fall apart. Buyers want to know where is the bottom and sellers want to know when they can really sell their home and actually retire with some money in the bank. How does one interpret where the real estate market is in Northern  New Jersey?

Well according to Stan Humphries, chief economist of real estate website Zillow Inc., “2012 will be a very confusing year for consumers.” Mortgage rates are hitting new historic lows, but, contrary to conventional wisdom, pending home sales and mortgage applications have declined. At the same time, home prices are rising. And that’s just this month. With so much fluctuating data, how can home buyers or sellers possibly figure out whether it’s the right time to buy or sell?

Mostly, people are trying to figure out if the market has hit bottom and is now in recovery.  People get the impression that the bottom is a discrete period of time. The truth”THE BOTTOM” is created when markets start to experience spikes in data which are out of the “NORM’ for the current real estate condition. Folks this is the bottom. The numbers and data are hard to interpret because they are changing. House prices are created based on past performance, when the market makes a shift and the houses being sold do not match up with the recent sold data, there is a shift in the market. Recently there has been numerous articles on the positive trend in real estate , Northern New Jersey leads this trend. Homes for sale in New Jersey are still in demand our area is experiencing multiple bids on properties where last year we had very few bidding situations. That is not to say there are still plenty of good deals on the market but they have to be found.

Real estate is very similar to the stock market, it goes up and it goes down it usually fluctuates about 20% over a 7-10 year span. If you need help interpreting the data , look to a LOCAL REALTOR, what is happening in Montclair , is not happening in West Orange. Real estate happens at a very local level.



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